In My View

More things change…

More things change, the more people feel that it would remain the same. Listening recently to Ralph A Cossa of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Pacific Forum brief a group of American journalists, one could not fail to have that sentiment. He made life in the years ahead seem so easy: “In all likelihood the GOP (for the uninitiated, that’s the Republican Party) would return to power in 2008.” China would show its fangs soon to Taiwan and they would fall in line. North Korea is about finding the right price. The list of good times ahead is endless.

But what took the cake was this: Imagine Chinese economy losing momentum causing deep social crisis in the country, “And you would have 100 million Chinese boat-people crossing over,” he said. Visions of ‘Yellow Peril’ and 1890s USA could not have been very comfortable for the assembled American, so one of them asked a rather pertinent question, ‘why should there be 100 million Chinese boat-people.’ Pat came the reply, “When I talk about China, I multiply the normal by the magnitude of 10.”

Let us take each of these statements about North East Asia individually and examine them for their validity. China can and has shown its fangs to Taiwan earlier. But this is also a China that is becoming conscious about its heightened international image, with or without the Beijing Olympics. It has shown that in its new African endeavour.

A little aside could better reflect the position of Taiwan on its rocky relations with China and its dependence on the USA for its ‘independent’ existence. In a discussion on the ‘US as Empire’ at the East West Centre, Hawai’i the other week, when everyone from the South East Asia region and South Asia had reached a consensus that the world was worse off with America as an imperial power, the ball had reached a young girl from Taiwan who also happened to be an official of the international department of the ruling Democratic Progress Party.

With her usual Asian humility, but speaking firmly, she had talked about the failures of the USA as an ally in upholding the interests of Taiwan. While her frustration at Washington’s failure to look after a World War ally was clearly evident, she was told in public rather abruptly the next day that there was only one China. Taiwan’s predicament was evident even then. So when the Pacific Forum chief of the CSIS tells American journalists that Beijing would show its gritted teeth soon across the Straits, it takes an all the more different meaning. But do all dramas need to follow the script?

On the North Korean nuclear issue, for example, the Chinese have shown a high degree of pragmatism. They have successfully acted in ways that have pleased all parties. The deal with the US that Beijing facilitated got Kim Jong Ill the cash he desired; but kept him away from substantive contacts with Washington; and helped George W Bush Administration to put out a nuclear proliferation brush fire, thus leaving it hanging from a thin thread tied to the nuclear non-proliferation rod.

The confusion in American mind about China’s economic growth rate is evident in Dr Cossa’s statements. Because the neo-liberal economists cannot fathom how a country can grow at ten per cent for more than a decade. For them growths come in spurts as every high growth period is followed by a demand recession as prices rise and supplies reach over capacity. That may well be the case with smaller populations with high degrees of inequality.

But China – as India could be – is different. The first key to that lies in the depth of the country’s population. And the second, the wider diffusion of income amongst the lower strata that continuously fuels demand, possibly lies at the root of the Chinese success.

Of course, inequality is rising in China. That is the reason Hu Jintao, the Chinese leader had to talk about building a ‘harmonious society,’ during a one of the party plenums. But for that inequality to cause a severe overheating – because of too much of money in too few hands – of the Chinese economy would take a while. But yes, a good insurance against such an eventuality would be to free up the socio-political space as in allowing the labour to negotiate their employment conditions.

But being outside – even if for a short period - looking in, does help one to understand one’s own country better. So when fellow Indian colleagues talk apolitically about what they cherish about the country, one realises how much we complain about our own. For example, it may soon be a case in India when out-station cheques would be credited into a bank account in a couple of days if the Reserve Bank of India decides to implement its pilot projects nationwide. In the USA, it takes six days for the same to happen!

Another tailpiece, an exposition on Indo-US relations delivered by an Indian foreign office official posted here began with how India was the first country in the world where a communist party was elected to government! One almost thought, are times changing even in South Block?

Pinaki Bhattacharya, currently located in Kolkata, is a Special Correspondent with the Mathrubhum, Kerala. He writes on Strategic Security issues. He can be contacted at pinaki63@dataone.in . He is presently in Hawai’i, the USA at the East West Centre as a Student Fellow of the Asia Pacific Leadership Programme of the Centre.