Thursday 11 October 2007

In My View

On the edge in Nepal

A stage is being set in Nepal for an epic showdown between the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) [CPN (Maoist)] and the Nepalese army, whose upper echelons are filled with representatives of the country’s ruling elite.

Last week the capital of Nepal, Kathmandu was abuzz with rumours of an imminent military coup that could topple the already shaky seven party coalition government led by the old warhorse of collaborationist struggles, Girija Prasad Koirala. The news on the streets of the city were about how the PM, Koirala has crossed swords with the chief of the Nepalese army on his continued support to the monarch, Gyanendra. And how the army wished to scuttle any move to declare Nepal a republic.

The scene seems to have been taken from a Kafkaesque literary drama, whose script has been prepared far away from the Himalayan nation that is witnessing the rebirth of revolutionary communism. A little over a fortnight ago, a US State department official had told this writer – reported in these columns last week – with no equivocation that the Maoists would lose the polls to be held in November next for electing a Constituent Assembly.

This was the time when the CPN (Maoist) was putting intense pressure on the Koirala government to abolish the monarchy and for introducing proportional representation in the November elections.

They had not yet walked out of the government, even though the Koirala government was resisting such demands.

The certitude of the American government official had seemed strange, considering that not even the first ballot in the November polls had not been cast yet. One could almost smell an American game plan in the works.

Events of the past week have only deepened that suspicion. The circumstances of the public spat between the PM, Koirala and the army chief, on an issue that should have been resolved earlier, seemed too stage-managed. The quasi-religious tone of the BJP chief, Rajnath Singh’s displeasure with the Nepalese Maoists – especially following the Sethu Samudram brouhaha - appeared designed to rouse communal public opinion in the country, in favour of an intervention across India’s northern borders with Nepal. “Hinduism is in danger,” could become a credible call against ‘godless’ communists, as it has been in the past.

On the other hand, “democracy is in danger” is the refrain the Western media has picked up ever since the Nepalese government has postponed the November polls, unable to deal with the Maoists’ demand. Now, they have also begun dishing out the argument first put out by that US State department official – that the Maoists in Nepal official do not have a hope in hell to win the elections.

Yet, no one could deny the fact that barely a year ago, the Maoists controlled almost 70 per cent of rural Nepal and could virtually choke off Kathmandu, in a mass upsurge that unseated the King. As if to underline the fact, the CPN (Maoist) has now demanded that a referendum be held to decide whether Nepal should become a republic.

They have also begun optimistically speculating whether the current stalemate helps Gyanendra, the king to reconsolidate his position. That argument can only lead to an eventual advocacy for a militarist intervention with the Nepalese army, trained and armed by the USA at India’s behest, leading the charge.

It should be kept in mind that while the “People’s Liberation Army” of the CPN (Maoist) remains sequestered in encampments in and around Kathmandu under United Nations observation, the Koirala government has continued to drag its feet about deciding the final steps needed to be taken to settle their future. It was a crucial part of the deal the Maoists struck with the seven party coalition.

In their turn, the Maoists of Nepal should keep in mind that they are on uncharted territory. No one who knows Nepal can argue with their logic that the country needs to elect its Constituent Assembly after burying the last vestiges of the past monarchical regime – including the ruling elite of the Ranas who dominate governance and armed forces of the country. But they should know they are walking on thin ice.

They have a point to prove. After more than a decade of fighting against the ruling establishment, they are at the doors of transforming the nation that has long languished. One misstep could again plunge the nation into another civil war. While that might follow the logic of ongoing struggle of communism against oppression, it could also be construed by people seeking liberty as a failure of ideology to deal with political realities.

The unknown variable in that scenario is the motivation of Nepalese politicians like Koirala and his colleagues in the ministry and in Parliament. During the recent controversy between him and the army chief, the latter apparently told him that many of his ministerial colleagues had over the past year urged the armed forces to stage a coup. If even a grain of truth lies in that statement, the challenge for the Maoists do indeed appear to be uphill.

Pinaki Bhattacharya, currently located in Kolkata, is a Special Correspondent with the Mathrubhum, Kerala. He writes on Strategic Security issues. He can be contacted at pinaki63@dataone.in . He is presently in Hawai’i, the USA at the East West Centre as a Student Fellow of the Asia Pacific Leadership Programme of the Centre.

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Monday 1 October 2007

In My View

Washington tour de force

First steps on the streets of the quaint town which supposedly holds all the power that makes the world go round, had to be tentative. But very quickly one had the sense that
Washington, despite its self-avowed sense of importance, has the look and feel of a small, large town.

Even the American National Press Club that held such mystique when a Rajiv Gandhi was invited to address its assemblage in mid-1980s, for example, was really two top floors of a normal steel and concrete building. It consisted of a few convention halls, the regulation watering hole and a restaurant, and a corridor full of pictures that did not really lead up to anywhere. This was really a marginally upscale Press Club of India, situated in New Delhi.

One could sense an attempt at creating a historical milieu in the club. But that was not so well served when a leading member of the Club and senior journalist of a provincial newspaper – entrusted to give the tour to the visiting fellows - refused to engage in a conversation of increasing “corporatisation” of media. The context for the topic was provided by the legendary Dan Rather of the CBS television channel suing the latter for $ 70 million in damages.

The context for the milieu of an earlier meeting was literally set much closer to the ground. That was at the grey-white, concrete, boxlike structure of the US department of state head office at Foggy Bottom, Washington. The building creates almost as much empathy for America’s global interests as does its policies. So when one hears in that building the words that India is ‘the’ most important relationship of the present US administration, one cannot but feel a little curious.

The feeling of curiosity was framed outside of the building, literally on the street right across US State Department offices, when a ‘homeless’ person – US-speak for a beggar – had shouted, “George Bush is your business partner, you m*****f*****g Indian.” His anger had stemmed from being fobbed off with 50 cents when he had demanded a dollar. The truth of the statement could not have been better expressed even if the US Secretary of State, Condoleezza Rice, had couched it in civilised diplomatese.

The US urgency to do business with India was despite an opposition of Indian political opinion against such a relationship developing, and “soundbytes” of opposition in the USA, we were informed in one of the briefing rooms on the upper floors of the building. One of the key areas of focus - outside of the currently ongoing nuclear dialogue – is the “agricultural knowledge initiative.” New Delhi
is being urged to remove ‘inhibitions’ on agricultural infrastructure and expansion of food processing.

Curiously, Indian agriculture was also an issue that featured in Hawai’i, of all places, a couple of weeks ago. Honolulu’s most important weekly newspaper had featured a list of 20 news items that America’s mainstream media have ignored. And one of them was the issue of genetically modified crops being introduced in the country on the back of the agricultural initiative.

An active defence relationship with India is also on the table at the US state department; besides an interesting programme of routing Central European students opting to study in the USA through India for English language lessons.

But far more interesting was the US government’s take on the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam and the Tamil insurgency. Asserting that the Sri Lankan problem did not have a military solution, Washington looked for higher standards of governance and justice. The ban on LTTE could be lifted if it “disarmed.” And the Tamil insurgency could not be dubbed just “terrorism.”

Even more important was what was said about Nepal. The US government appeared convinced that in the November elections in that Himalayan enclave, the CPN (M-L-M), Maoists in short, would not come to power. Instead, they would be a minority opposition force. And their recent departure from governance duties was being viewed as an attempt to gain credibility ahead of the polls.

On the other hand, the USA was trying to convince China that its growing intimacy with India was not an attempt at “encircling” Beijing. In fact, the USA was not worried about China making forays into Africa. Instead it watches with increasing interest Khartoum, Sudan turning into a boom town with the help of Chinese investments.

New York, on the other hand, had the look of a boom town in decline. While its raucous culture; unacceptance of government laws unquestioningly; and general squalor made it far more familiar and hospitable for an Indian used to living in Kolkata or Mumbai. It also somehow had a pall hanging over it.

On the way back in the plane to Hawai’i, a senior attorney employed with one of the American provincial governments summed it all up when he said, “The American dream summed up by ‘full faith and credit’ is failing. Ask any average American, he will tell you there is something seriously wrong with the country.” A part-time bible preacher whose secular job is to monitor and manage retirement funds said, “Look at the condition of the dollar. It won’t even help our exports because we don’t produce anything. We are only a nation of consumers.”

Pinaki Bhattacharya, currently located in Kolkata, is a Special Correspondent with the Mathrubhum, Kerala. He writes on Strategic Security issues. He can be contacted at pinaki63@dataone.in . He is presently in Hawai’i, the USA at the East West Centre as a Student Fellow of the Asia Pacific Leadership Programme of the Centre.

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