In My View

Pakistan back on rails

Though the polls in Pakistan were postponed to mid-February in the wake of the violence following Benazir Bhutto’s assassination, it appears the country is back to business. This week the raging debate was not about how Bhutto was killed, but about how, she had wanted to make known a study on Inter Services Intelligence’s (ISI) plans to steal the elections.

Interestingly, the country’s president, Parvez Musharraf’s spokesperson not only just debunked the charges against the ISI, but promised that this general election would be the ‘freest and fairest’ in Pakistan’s history. That in a way framed the issue by which the Musharraf government would be judged in the next few months – how they administer the poll process. And, whether they can pull the people of the country from the brink of losing all faith in the State’s ability to govern.

Crucially, that expertise was on severe test last week when Bhutto was assassinated. Widespread violence reigned on the streets for about a day. But importantly, the government did not need to call out the army to maintain vigil and instead, deployed the paramilitary, Pakistan Rangers. Even they did not have to exert themselves too much as the Centre held. People of the Punjab and Sindh showed high emotions at this destabilisation of the country, which even put the likes of Baitullah Masood – the new high priest of Islamist terrorism in the region – and his allies, the al Qaeda, on the backfoot.

If Pakistan’s intelligence agencies are to be believed, Masood’s men were involved in the killing – a claim they first purportedly made, but later retracted. As if on cue, the USA and its beneficiaries in the sub continent were busy trying to shift the focus of public attention away from the possible plotters because they were afraid of the impact public anger could have, if directed towards al Qaeda, the Taliban or their own homegrown cohorts.

Because just a few days before Bhutto was killed, it was revealed by British newspaper how the UK’s Secret Intelligence Service (MI 6) was talking to the Taliban for stabilising Afghanistan. Readers might recall that this column had first reported that the US agencies were talking to the Taliban about a year ago.

On the other hand, it does appear that at a crucial time of the country’s existence not only did the Centre hold, but even the peripheries like Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) including the two Waziristans etc; North West Frontier Province and Balochistan did not drive up the escalation ladder to make it untenable for Pakistan to exist as a nation.

Contrarily, if reports appearing in Islamabad’s Dawn newspaper are to be believed, right through the trying period, the ceasefire declared by the militants of FATA on 17 December held. In fact, that ceasefire has now been extended to 20 January giving rise to expectations that a truce being negotiated by a tribal jirga would take effect, returning the region to peace of last year when Musharraf had so famously struck a deal with the tribals.

The other important indicator of the sub continent’s political health was India and Pakistan exchanging lists of their respective nuclear installations on 1 January. Indeed, this confidence building measure (CBM) has become a particularly significant pointer of the two governments’ desire to maintain a semblance of sanity amidst high tension.

In fact, New Delhi showed extreme reticence for fishing in troubled waters. Even while much of the local media had gone on an overdrive for pouring out sympathies towards the slain Bhutto – the government showed great reluctance to join the feeding frenzy and not overstep the limits of diplomatic niceties.

On the other hand, it did seem that New Delhi appeared keen that Musharraf got hold of the situation and gain control over it as quickly as possible. The signal sent by increasing vigil on India’s borders signaled that New Delhi did not welcome any situation that could lead to the large scale displacement of Pakistan’s population. Of course, the increased attention on the borders was also designed to stave off any attempt by elements in Pakistan to push through armed infiltrators, taking advantage of the instability within the country.

Washington played the role of an inquisitor, especially with the presidential polls on the horizon. While the strongest statement came from the American Democratic Party frontrunner, Hillary Clinton speaking at her shrillest best, it almost seemed that the political class in the country would like to haul Musharraf over the coals even before the earth on Bhutto’s grave had dried. In the process, they only ended up signaling to the Islamic world that whoever gets elected to the White House this November, there would be little change in the USA’s attitude towards global problems.

Leadership of Pakistan’s armed forces, possibly for the first time in the country’s blood-stained history, on the other hand, maintained a dignified distance from the fast developing situation, thus raising innumerable positive possibilities, which can only be strengthened if the polls are held with the highest sense of probity. That could turn into the good fortune the people of Pakistan had been waiting for so long.

Pinaki Bhattacharya, currently located in Kolkata, is a Special Correspondent with the Mathrubhumi, Kerala. He writes on Strategic Security issues. He can be contacted at pinaki63@dataone.in.