In My View

On the edge in Nepal

A stage is being set in Nepal for an epic showdown between the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) [CPN (Maoist)] and the Nepalese army, whose upper echelons are filled with representatives of the country’s ruling elite.

Last week the capital of Nepal, Kathmandu was abuzz with rumours of an imminent military coup that could topple the already shaky seven party coalition government led by the old warhorse of collaborationist struggles, Girija Prasad Koirala. The news on the streets of the city were about how the PM, Koirala has crossed swords with the chief of the Nepalese army on his continued support to the monarch, Gyanendra. And how the army wished to scuttle any move to declare Nepal a republic.

The scene seems to have been taken from a Kafkaesque literary drama, whose script has been prepared far away from the Himalayan nation that is witnessing the rebirth of revolutionary communism. A little over a fortnight ago, a US State department official had told this writer – reported in these columns last week – with no equivocation that the Maoists would lose the polls to be held in November next for electing a Constituent Assembly.

This was the time when the CPN (Maoist) was putting intense pressure on the Koirala government to abolish the monarchy and for introducing proportional representation in the November elections.

They had not yet walked out of the government, even though the Koirala government was resisting such demands.

The certitude of the American government official had seemed strange, considering that not even the first ballot in the November polls had not been cast yet. One could almost smell an American game plan in the works.

Events of the past week have only deepened that suspicion. The circumstances of the public spat between the PM, Koirala and the army chief, on an issue that should have been resolved earlier, seemed too stage-managed. The quasi-religious tone of the BJP chief, Rajnath Singh’s displeasure with the Nepalese Maoists – especially following the Sethu Samudram brouhaha - appeared designed to rouse communal public opinion in the country, in favour of an intervention across India’s northern borders with Nepal. “Hinduism is in danger,” could become a credible call against ‘godless’ communists, as it has been in the past.

On the other hand, “democracy is in danger” is the refrain the Western media has picked up ever since the Nepalese government has postponed the November polls, unable to deal with the Maoists’ demand. Now, they have also begun dishing out the argument first put out by that US State department official – that the Maoists in Nepal official do not have a hope in hell to win the elections.

Yet, no one could deny the fact that barely a year ago, the Maoists controlled almost 70 per cent of rural Nepal and could virtually choke off Kathmandu, in a mass upsurge that unseated the King. As if to underline the fact, the CPN (Maoist) has now demanded that a referendum be held to decide whether Nepal should become a republic.

They have also begun optimistically speculating whether the current stalemate helps Gyanendra, the king to reconsolidate his position. That argument can only lead to an eventual advocacy for a militarist intervention with the Nepalese army, trained and armed by the USA at India’s behest, leading the charge.

It should be kept in mind that while the “People’s Liberation Army” of the CPN (Maoist) remains sequestered in encampments in and around Kathmandu under United Nations observation, the Koirala government has continued to drag its feet about deciding the final steps needed to be taken to settle their future. It was a crucial part of the deal the Maoists struck with the seven party coalition.

In their turn, the Maoists of Nepal should keep in mind that they are on uncharted territory. No one who knows Nepal can argue with their logic that the country needs to elect its Constituent Assembly after burying the last vestiges of the past monarchical regime – including the ruling elite of the Ranas who dominate governance and armed forces of the country. But they should know they are walking on thin ice.

They have a point to prove. After more than a decade of fighting against the ruling establishment, they are at the doors of transforming the nation that has long languished. One misstep could again plunge the nation into another civil war. While that might follow the logic of ongoing struggle of communism against oppression, it could also be construed by people seeking liberty as a failure of ideology to deal with political realities.

The unknown variable in that scenario is the motivation of Nepalese politicians like Koirala and his colleagues in the ministry and in Parliament. During the recent controversy between him and the army chief, the latter apparently told him that many of his ministerial colleagues had over the past year urged the armed forces to stage a coup. If even a grain of truth lies in that statement, the challenge for the Maoists do indeed appear to be uphill.

Pinaki Bhattacharya, currently located in Kolkata, is a Special Correspondent with the Mathrubhum, Kerala. He writes on Strategic Security issues. He can be contacted at pinaki63@dataone.in . He is presently in Hawai’i, the USA at the East West Centre as a Student Fellow of the Asia Pacific Leadership Programme of the Centre.