In My View

NPT coming under the scanner

In the past month two critical developments in the nuclear weapons realm have turned the spotlights to shine on the significant issue of global security. First was the convening of the Preparatory Committee (PrepCom) for the 2010 Review Conference of the Parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). And the second, introduction at the Conference of Disarmament (CD) of a draft presidential decision to start work.

The draft decision included four crucial elements;

(a) substantive discussions on issues of nuclear disarmament

(b) prevention of arms race in outer space

(c) negative security assurances; and

(d) negotiations on a treaty banning the production of fissile material for nuclear weapons or other nuclear explosive devices.

Each of these issues has gained added salience in the past few years. And over the next few years these two parallel platforms will dovetail in many areas. Hence, it is imperative to see them together and examine the cross linkages, especially for countries like India, which are nuclear weapon states outside of the official purview of the NPT.

The NPT ‘PrepCom ’ kicked off in Vienna with a speech by the US Special Representative for NonProliferation, Dr Christopher A. Ford in front of the 130 members of the 189 signatory nations. Dr Ford had outlined the key areas of concern of the NPT in 2007.

Concerns about the Iranian nuclear programme, and North Korea’s withdrawal from the Treaty has focussed attention on its continuing efficacy. Pakistan’s AQ Khan ran the nuclear retail business that threatened the world order with a kind of vertical proliferation, which upended any of the safeguards the International Atomic Energy Agency could uphold. Finally, a key provision of nuclear energy cooperation in the NPT became a sticking point as a ‘dual use’ capability that the US aims to stymie.

Interestingly, the US Special Representative provided great amount of attention to Art VI of the Treaty that aims at a complete elimination of nuclear weapons. While on the one level, he waxed eloquent about the US effort to reduce its own stockpile of nuclear weapons in line with its bilateral treaty obligations with Russia.

On another level, Dr Ford sought to turn the disarmament clause into more of a guarantee of non proliferation and strategic weapons limitation issue. Added to that was the intention of linking the aim to include Fissile Material Cut-off Treaty (FMCT) to the issue of complete elimination of nuclear weapons, which he hoped, could be concluded “in this review cycle” of the NPT.

And here lies the rub. In a lengthy speech delivered at the Vienna ‘ PrepCom’ the Iranian Permanent Representative to the IAEA Ali Asghar Soltanieh delivered a damning indictment of the nuclear weapons states, particularly the USA, as the ultimate transgressors of the Treaty. Teheran took a position that they would not acquiesce to the agenda of the ‘ PrepCom’, which required a complete consensus to move forward. Their objection was to the phrase, “reaffirming the need for full compliance of the NPT.” For they felt, that language was inserted to harass them as they move ahead with their plans to continue with nuclear fuel cycle activities the US sought to debar.

They wanted the language to be changed. Eventually they accepted a South African suggestion that a footnote be appended to the agenda, that “compliance” indicated “with all provisions,” thus signifying that even the nuclear weapons states would be in a spot if they seek to make heavy weather out of the stipulation.

India too is front and centre of the ensuing debate. Though the country officially is not a member of the NPT – the US interlocutors like its Secretary of State, Condoleezza Rice, and her Undersecretary of State, Nicholas Burns believe India has fallen in line with main provisions of the Treaty – it is being sought to be engaged through the CD.

India’s Ambassador to the CD has already stated, “India has a multilateral vocation and is ready to participate in the substantive work of the Conference, should it decide on appropriate parameters and do so by consensus.” He has even assured the CD that “…we would like to reiterate our consistent position, in respect of an FMCT, of the importance we attach to the negotiation of a universal, non discriminatory and verifiable treaty.”

Clearly, the current international mood is to shore up the weather-beaten Treaty and create a substructure that could hold up the tattered remains of an inherently discriminatory nuclear regime. It remains to be seen how much resonance the Iranian position of a direct challenge to the nuclear ‘haves’ gets.

And of particular interest would be to watch India function “with its multilateral vocation” after concluding the final bilateral deal with the USA on the nuclear issue. Of crucial importance would be when the CD and the NPT Review Committee takes up the issue of universal nuclear disarmament. Already, the USA has started talking of “practicable processes” that need to be undertaken, before the goal is reached. Would India abjure its idealist positions of yore and walk a similar self-serving path, now that the gates of the nuclear club are being opened a crack for it?

Pinaki Bhattacharya, currently located in Kolkata, is a Special Correspondent with the Mathrubhumi, Kerala. He writes on Strategic Security issues. He can be contacted at pinaki63@dataone.in .